Economic Risk Analysis for Petroleum Projects

Venue

Kenyan Cost(KES)

Non-Kenyan Cost(USD)

Enroll

Mombasa

275,000

3000

Overview

Curriculum

Economic Risk Analysis for Petroleum Projects

Online Training: Monte-Carlo Simulation, Crystal Ball, and Strategic Investment Decision-Making | ECAS Institute

Course Background
Objectives
What You Will Learn
Training Modules
Target Participants
Contact

Course Background

This online training equips petroleum and industrial project professionals with practical tools for economic evaluation and risk assessment. Using Monte-Carlo simulation and Crystal Ball software in Excel, participants learn to quantify uncertainty, assess project feasibility, and make informed investment decisions. The course includes a real-world oil and gas project example and a free e-book on project investment risk assessment.

Course Objectives

Perform economic evaluation of petroleum and industrial projects using Monte-Carlo simulation.

Utilize Crystal Ball software effectively for risk assessment.

Apply decision tree analysis to evaluate project alternatives.

Conduct comprehensive economic studies with risk assessment.

Use advanced statistical and probability techniques for optimal investment decisions.

What You Will Learn

Monte-Carlo simulation methodology and application using Crystal Ball in Excel.

Economic calculation and risk assessment using a real oil and gas investment project example.

General application of simulation techniques for risk assessment in various projects.

Decision-making strategies based on simple economic parameters and multinational best practices.

Advanced statistical and probability methods for optimal project investment decisions.

Free e-book: “Business Project Investment: Risk Assessment & Decision Making.”

Training Modules

Module 1: Economic Analysis Fundamentals

Time value of money: Present Worth, Future Worth, Annual Worth.

Investment appraisal techniques: NPV, IRR, Payback Period.

Cash flow diagrams and project cash flow estimation.

Sensitivity analysis and its limitations.

Introduction to project feasibility studies.

Module 2: Statistical Tools for Risk Analysis

Measures of central tendency: mean, median, mode.

Measures of dispersion: variance, standard deviation.

Correlation and covariance.

Introduction to uncertainty and risk in project evaluation.

Module 3: Probability Distributions

Discrete vs. continuous probability distributions.

Common distributions: Normal, Uniform, Triangular, Lognormal, Beta.

Selecting the appropriate distribution for each variable.

Understanding probability density functions and cumulative distribution functions.

Module 4: Monte-Carlo Simulation Concept

Overview and purpose of Monte-Carlo simulation.

Defining uncertain inputs and output variables.

Interpreting simulation results: probability of success, outcome ranges.

Advantages over deterministic methods.

Module 5: Crystal Ball Software Application

Crystal Ball interface and functionality.

Defining assumptions and forecasts in Excel.

Running simulations and analyzing results (certainty reports, sensitivity charts, overlay charts).

Application to an oil and gas investment project example.

Module 6: Practical Example & Decision Making

Step-by-step economic calculation for an oil and gas project.

Identifying key uncertain parameters: oil price, production rate, CAPEX, OPEX.

Setting up Monte-Carlo simulation and interpreting risk profiles.

Decision tree application for strategic choices.

Guidelines for informed business decisions based on risk analysis.

Target Participants

Project Engineers and Project Managers in energy and industrial sectors.

Project Services and Site Managers involved in investment decisions.

Senior managers and decision-makers in energy projects.

Petroleum engineers or other professionals aspiring to management roles.

Contact & Registration

Training manuals and additional reference materials are provided. Certificates issued upon successful completion.

For tailor-made courses or inquiries, contact: info@ecasiafrica.org

Payments should be sent to our bank account before the start of training, with proof sent to: info@ecasiafrica.org

Economic Risk Analysis for Petroleum Projects

Course Background

Course Objectives

What You Will Learn

Training Modules

Module 1: Economic Analysis Fundamentals

Module 2: Statistical Tools for Risk Analysis

Module 3: Probability Distributions

Module 4: Monte-Carlo Simulation Concept

Module 5: Crystal Ball Software Application

Module 6: Practical Example & Decision Making

Target Participants

Contact & Registration

Management of Environment and Energy Projects

HR Management for Oil and Gas Managers and Supervisors

Investment Management

Business Ethics and Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)

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