International Training on Assessing Uncertainties in the National Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Strengthening Climate Transparency through Uncertainty Analysis in the Land Use Sector

Course Background

Under the Enhanced Transparency Framework (ETF) established by the Paris Agreement, all Parties are required to estimate and report uncertainties in their National Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventories. Accurate uncertainty analysis is essential for building trust in reported emissions and removals, enabling effective policy and mitigation strategies.

This course, developed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) and now delivered by Environmental Capacities and Sustainability (ECAS), focuses on uncertainty assessments in the land use sector, a complex area in national GHG accounting. Participants will learn to perform uncertainty analyses in line with the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and 2019 Refinement.

Course Objectives

Define uncertainty in national GHG inventories and explain its significance in climate reporting.

Apply statistical approaches to quantify uncertainty.

Combine uncertainties across different sectors to estimate overall national inventory uncertainty.

Understand recent refinements in IPCC guidelines relevant to uncertainty in land use reporting.

What You Will Learn

The role and significance of uncertainty in national GHG inventories.

Key statistical concepts and definitions associated with uncertainty analysis.

Methodologies for quantifying uncertainties in emissions and removals.

Techniques for combining uncertainties across sectors to estimate total national inventory uncertainty.

Updates from the 2019 IPCC Guidelines for uncertainty in the land use sector.

Target Participants

This course is tailored for professionals involved in the preparation, compilation, or verification of national GHG inventories. This includes staff from national agencies responsible for UNFCCC reporting, GHG inventory compilers, data specialists from National Statistical Offices (NSOs), and researchers focused on land use and climate change mitigation.

Training Modules

No.ModuleKey Focus Areas1Uncertainty in the Context of National Greenhouse Gas Inventories Importance of uncertainty analysis
ETF requirements under the Paris Agreement
Sector-specific considerations for land use2Quantifying Uncertainty Types of uncertainties (activity data, emission factors)
Statistical tools (standard deviation, confidence intervals)
Expert judgment in uncertainty estimation3Combining Uncertainties IPCC methods for combining uncertainties
Aggregating uncertainties for total national emissions
Applying the 2019 IPCC Refinement guidance

Training Style

The course is delivered through a mix of PowerPoint presentations, lectures, case studies, breakout sessions, and interactive group discussions. It also includes expert guest speakers offering real-world insights into the latest statistical methodologies and climate reporting standards.